Combat Aircraft 10/2014

Hearing the news that the 65th Aggressor Squadron at Nellis AFB is to disband in September came as little surprise. The US Air Force is struggling to fund its "big ticket" programs, so something has to give. However, the figure quoted in terms of savings afforded by culling the 19 aggressor F-15s is $35 million annually. Compare that with the reductions we are told will come in the F-35 Lightning II program. The F-35 Joint Program Office says that an F-35A currently costs $112 million, but that it will come down to $80 million by 2019 (others say the current figure is an awful lot higher). Ignoring this fact, the JPO figure still suggests a reduction of $32 million per aircraft by 2019. So, to fund and save the aggressors would require just one F-35 to be deferred each year until 2019. Not fewer jets, just deferring them! Of course, that doesn't work. If everyone just waited for F-35 costs to come down as promised, the price cut wouldn't happen. Production needs to ramp up now in order to yield the cost reductions. Pile them high, sell them cheap(er). So, why can't customers just sit it out and play the waiting game — wait for an F-35 that has come down the cost curve, wait for an F-35 that doesn't have all the concurrency issues; a more mature jet that has completed testing and doesn't require modifications? Some argue that the expensive jets coming out in the initial LRIP batches will have little combat capability and will require the sort of costly mid-life upgrade that the F-16s needed in the 1990s. With the high cost of concurrency (bringing these jets up to full capability standards), will these early F-35s be rendered obsolete? Are they going to have any useful combat capability? In the longer term, they surely will, but many less complex fighter aircraft programs have taken a decade to be brought up to a meaningful standard after entering service. The question is whether air forces will be forced to sacrifice useful fighter fleets in order to pay for a new jet with little real immediate combat capability.

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