WITH UNITED States Navy F-18 fighters now flying over the northern part of Iraq from the USS George H W Bush and US Army AH-64D Apaches and US drones sent to the Baghdad area to protect American interests, it appears inevitable that American airpower is yet again going to be used to try and create a stable situation in Iraq. Iraq has also turned to Russia and Iran for ground attack aircraft (See Middle East News page 22). But will their efforts succeed? Given the history of military interventions in the Middle East the temptation might be to draw a negative conclusion and presume the chances of a successful outcome are close to zero. But analysis of conflicts where air power is being applied with some success suggests otherwise. In ongoing battles against similar insurgents in Yemen, Egypt and Pakistan, air power has denied them freedom to manoeuvre. Without intervention from the air the security situation in each country would be materially worse. Perhaps the question to ask is what lessons can be learned from recent application of airpower to shape its use and reduce unforeseen outcomes? The rapid advance of the forces of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant - otherwise known as ISIS - across vast tracts of Iraq has surprised many political leaders.
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